Christopher A. Lawrence of the Dupuy Institute has published the book ‘War by Numbers Understanding Conventional Combat’.
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War by Numbers assesses the nature of conventional warfare through the analysis of historical combat. Christopher A. Lawrence (President and Executive Director of The Dupuy Institute) establishes what we know about conventional combat and why we know it. By demonstrating the impact a variety of factors have on combat he moves such analysis beyond the work of Carl von Clausewitz and into modern data and interpretation.
Using vast data sets, Lawrence examines force ratios, the human factor in case studies from World War II and beyond, the combat value of superior situational awareness, and the effects of dispersion, among other elements. Lawrence challenges existing interpretations of conventional warfare and shows how such combat should be conducted in the future, simultaneously broadening our understanding of what it means to fight wars by the numbers.
Table of contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
Abbreviations xiii
Understanding War 1
Force Ratios 8
Attacker versus Defender 14
Human Factors 16
Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Italy 1943-1944 19
Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Ardennes and Kursk 32
Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Modern Wars 49
Outcome of Battles 60
Exchange Ratios 72
The Combat Value of Superior Situational Awareness 79
The Combat Value of Surprise 121
The Nature of Lower Levels of Combat 146
The Effects of Dispersion on Combat 163
Advance Rates 174
Casualties 181
Urban Legends 206
The Use of Case Studies 265
Modeling Warfare 285
Validation of the TNDM 299
Conclusions 325
Appendix I: Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat 329
Appendix II: Dupuy’s Combat Advance Rate Verities 335
Appendix III: Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities 339
Notes 345
Bibliography 369